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 Because I am the MATHHAMMER! and I just can't help myself..

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JMarv
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PostSubject: Because I am the MATHHAMMER! and I just can't help myself..   Tue Mar 18, 2008 2:25 pm

Not content to just provide average statistics, I have taken it upon myself to learn how to run Monte Carlo simulations in Crystal Ball regarding possible dice rolls.

Basically this Excel add on simulates thousands of random rolls and then provides a summary of all the possible outcomes based on some criteria you specify.

While this has little impact in one event, such as one attack in which each outcome has the same probability, things get a little more complicated when it comes to multiple attacks, although not too bad. Throw in things like rending or rerolls and things get trickier.

Now I will be able to calculate not only the average outcome, but the distribution of all possible outcomes.

Case in point, melta bombs versus the ork grenade thing. Melta bombs are 2D6 which averages 7, Ork bomb thingies are 1D6x2 also average of 7. However the ork bombs have an even distrubution, a value of 2 is just as likely as a 6 as it is a 12. For melta bombs it is triangular, such that a 6, 7 or 8 is much much more likely than a 2 or 12. (On a fluff note I think this is a wonderful thing comparing orks to marines)

Distributions are better able to determine the risk in certain weapon load outs or situations.
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JMarv
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PostSubject: Re: Because I am the MATHHAMMER! and I just can't help myself..   Tue Mar 18, 2008 7:21 pm

Seriously, nobody wants to know what the likelyhood of their chaplain with lightning claws and rerolls to hit attacking a unit of bikes T5 and how likely each number of wounds are?

Or how frequently that unit of stealers will kill the whole 10 man tac squad so that the powerfist doesn't get to strike back?

Tell me what you wonder about people...
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FrostWolf
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PostSubject: Re: Because I am the MATHHAMMER! and I just can't help myself..   Tue Mar 18, 2008 7:59 pm

how well is the warp lightning cannon with its 8d6 range and artillary dice from strength and all its weird rules
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Scav
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PostSubject: Re: Because I am the MATHHAMMER! and I just can't help myself..   Tue Mar 18, 2008 11:32 pm

you would have a ball determining which weapons works better in assault against different units as far as eldar exarchs go (mirror swords vs executioner on a banshee exarch).

do you want specific situations/questions?
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JMarv
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PostSubject: Re: Because I am the MATHHAMMER! and I just can't help myself..   Wed Mar 19, 2008 9:16 am

Bruce - I'll start working on that. Obviously the WLC has so many weird rules that I won't be able to slap a "good" or "bad" on it, but I will be able to give you the range distribution and the kills distribution against an array of targets. Currently I'm planning on firing scenarios involving human light infantry, human heavy infantry and some T4 heavy infantry. For these I will assume that the cannon had range to reach through the entire unit. Are there any specific units you would like me to examine?

Ryan - Some scenarios would be great. Generally I normalize things to fighting a MEQ opponent. I don't have an eldar codex with me at work, can you give me some stat lines?
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FrostWolf
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PostSubject: Re: Because I am the MATHHAMMER! and I just can't help myself..   Wed Mar 19, 2008 12:41 pm

How about some orges and a dragon and its rider? and then yea the humans give a good base for most armies Twisted Evil
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JMarv
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PostSubject: Re: Because I am the MATHHAMMER! and I just can't help myself..   Wed Mar 19, 2008 1:33 pm

Ok, I'll do up some ogres and a high elf on a dragon as well. Do ogres have two wounds or three?

And what are the saves on a elf on a dragon?
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FrostWolf
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PostSubject: Re: Because I am the MATHHAMMER! and I just can't help myself..   Wed Mar 19, 2008 2:03 pm

You would have to ask crobar I think the orges have 3 wounds no clue on the dragon
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Crobar
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PostSubject: Re: Because I am the MATHHAMMER! and I just can't help myself..   Wed Mar 19, 2008 7:52 pm

depends on the dragon, armor saves are from 5+ to 3+.
As for the ogres, they have 3 wounds.

The high elf lord on a dragon that I usually field is a star dragon with a 3+ armor save. The lord has a 2+ armor save that is re-rollable backed by a 4+ ward save. you can hit the lord in closed comabt if you choose to or only on a 5 or 6 in ranged.
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PostSubject: Re: Because I am the MATHHAMMER! and I just can't help myself..   Wed Mar 19, 2008 8:55 pm

The 5 or 6 shoulnt matter for the cannon since you do not have to roll for hit(auto hit thing)
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JMarv
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PostSubject: Re: Because I am the MATHHAMMER! and I just can't help myself..   Wed Mar 19, 2008 10:56 pm

Thanks Crobar,
I'll update my Monte Carlo simulation at work tomorrow. I'm interested to see the effect of that re-rollable save coupled with the D6 wounds. Now does that multiply wounds before or after saves?

And Bruce, even though you autohit the model, that hit will still be randomized between the rider and the dragon, you can't hit both at once.
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FrostWolf
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PostSubject: Re: Because I am the MATHHAMMER! and I just can't help myself..   Thu Mar 20, 2008 1:01 pm

sorry mis read that part, as for before or after I truly have no clue, Id guess it would be before the saves.
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JMarv
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PostSubject: Re: Because I am the MATHHAMMER! and I just can't help myself..   Thu Mar 27, 2008 1:38 pm

Bruce,
I have the report ready, can I get an email address for me to send my powerpoint presentation to?

-John
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